The Expected Value of a Box (not including uncommon and common that aren't foils) is: $679.07 +/- $133.92 SD The Expected Value of a Box, considering only cards worth $4 or more is: $612.49 +/- $148.23 SD The Expected Value of a Box, considering only cards worth $10 or more is: $561.12 +/- $138.52 SD The value is BETTER than the article which was guessing at $500 and didn't include the variances (SD = Standard Deviation).
#Tarmogoyf time spiral remastered series
I did it as a series of simulation models where I simulated 36 packs of cards within boxes to get box values and did 1000 boxes per run to get a mean and standard deviation on expected box value. I took the mtg goldfish article on expected value for Time Spiral Remastered ( ), used the reported probabilities of each card type, and recalculated the box values with the prices for regular foils and time shifted border foils with current MARKET prices as of today on MTG Stocks. This is reposted from another thread after a commenter told me to start a new one to share. I'll try to figure out if there is an issue and repost, but it seems clear that the lottery aspect of the foil old border cards and their expected value which is huge part of the potential box value is a big X factor in getting this correct. Card prices are swinging wildly and are all over the price. I spent some time last night going over this with one helpful redditor, not sure if/where there is an error but I did notice very very large differences in market prices for foil cards between their list and mine.
# UPDATE: A number of folks have suggested that this distribution is higher than it ought to be and that it doesn't reflect personal experience. No threads asking what to do with your cards or money Single questions about cards/money/selling advice should be asked in the stickied threads posted every Mo/We/Fr. "Buyer beware" posts require submitting proof with identifying info removed. SCD, Video and card photo posts must include a brief summary. No Low Effort Posts: If you are requesting research, or the answer to your question can be found through public knowledge, find it yourself and post it. No spam, flaming, brigading, harassing.Īll posts must be financially related / No counterfeit authentication requests. Friday - Things to look out for this weekend!įollow Redditiquette.Wednesday - Weekly Ask MTGFinance Anything.Monday - Weekend Wrapup! What was real and what was a trap.
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